AS/COA Online | UK-Argentina in Diplomatic Row over Archipelago

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Buenos Aires brought its concerns about the Falkland Islands to the United Nations this week as a dispute with the United Kingdom heated up over the archipelago’s sovereignty. While Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner drew support for her country’s territorial claims from fellow Latin American leaders during the Rio Summit, a British company began drilling operations in the Falkland basin. A Spanish-Argentine partnership announced intentions to explore for oil as well, but in Argentine territory. The prospect of large oil reserves has brought a new twist on a decades-old disagreement over the Falklands—or Malvinas.

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AS/COA Online | Haiti and the Dominican Republic Mend Fences

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It may seem difficult to find an upshot to the massive natural disaster that hit Haiti last month. Yet the earthquake did lead to mended fences with the Dominican Republic. “The Dominicans were the first to arrive with help, with doctors, food, and aid,” says Alice Blanchet, a special advisor to Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive. “They were stellar.” Despite long-running tensions between Port-au-Prince and Santo Domingo, the disaster has drawn the neighbors closer together. As The Economist put it, the result is “[a] break in a history of mistrust.” But how long that break will last could be tested, particularly given recent changes in Dominican immigration policy.

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AS/COA Online | Vancouver’s Olympic Bet

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A blizzard of bad news hit the start of the Winter Olympics last week. Hours before the opening ceremony, a Georgian athlete died in a tragic accident while practicing on the luge track in an incident that drew safety concerns. The unseasonably warm weather has led some to dub these Games the first “Spring Olympics.” Organizers, faced with a lack of snow, refunded general admission tickets to some events this week, translating to $400,000 in lost-ticket revenue. But even as news reports cast light on the Games’ unwanted hurdles, local officials hope to showcase Vancouver during the Olympics and help shepherd along its economic recovery.

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AS/COA Online | Opposites Attract: PAN and PRD Align

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Three years ago, in the wake of Mexico's contentious presidential election, few would have predicted an alliance between the race's two rival parties. But the ruling conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) are considering just that as they face a resurgent Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). After sustaining losses in last year’s midterm election and with 12 governorships up for grabs this year, the two parties hope a union can undercut the PRI's gains ahead of the 2012 presidential vote. Yet voters might not buy the alliance between two teams with disparate ideologies.

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AS/COA Online | After the Earthquake: Healing Haiti

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L.A. County Fire Department and Rescue team in Port-au-Prince. (U.S. Navy photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Justin Stumberg)In the week since a massive earthquake devastated Haiti, the world has been gripped by tragic news of chaos and death as well as hopeful rescue stories. Donors desperate to support relief efforts text and twitter information and ways to help. Even as a tense delay in food distribution continues while troops and aid workers arrive on the ground, questions arise over Haiti’s future—and who should help the country recover.

“For those who have lost everything, help cannot come soon enough,” wrote UN Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon in an article penned after he visited Haiti over the weekend. On January 19, the UN Security Council backed his motion to send 3,500 additional UN peacekeepers to Haiti in the wake of the disaster, augmenting the 7,000-strong MINUSTAH forces already on the ground. Brazil has largest number of soldiers among the UN forces and will contribute to the increase by doubling its more than 1,250 troops there. Washington plans to bolster military forces by sending 10,000 U.S. troops within weeks.

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AS/COA Online | A Push for Census Participation

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Census 2010 forms don’t get mailed until March, but the U.S. Census Bureau kicked off a national campaign this week in hopes of ensuring participation in the count. The million campaign includes cross-country road tours to raise awareness about the decennial survey and reach out to typically undercounted populations, including Hispanics. The counts factor into the distribution of $400 billion in annual federal funding to state and local governments. Despite the link between funding and completing the Census, the survey has sparked division between Latino leaders urging Hispanics to fill out the forms and those who contend that Latinos should boycott the survey unless Washington approves comprehensive immigration reform.

The Census Bureau estimates that nearly 250,000 Latinos went uncounted during the 2000 Census. But the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials places the figure closer to one million. Undercounting in 2000 cost states $4.1 billion in federal funding. California alone lost $1.5 billion. On Wednesday, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaragaisa—arguably one of the country’s most prominent Hispanic politicians—joined Latino leaders in calling for census participation. He argued that Los Angeles lost $200 million worth of federal cash because of undercounting in the last round.

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AS/COA Online - New Year, New Taxes in Mexico

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Mexico rang in the New Year with a series of tax hikes in hopes of easing a budget deficit sparked by last year's financial crisis. On Monday, tax increases went into effect on income, consumer goods, and phone service, along with an rise in fuel prices. The country’s tax revenues in terms of GDP rank among the lowest in the world. Still, the hikes could lead to inflation and dampen the country’s 2010 growth rate. The tax increases come as President Felipe Calderón kicks off the second half of his term with an ambitious political reform proposal.
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AS/COA Online - Interview: Nouriel Roubini on Latin America's 2010 Outlook

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"These countries have shown their own resilience. Their economic policies have been sound and they’ve been able to conduct countercyclical policies."

Chairman of Roubini Global Economic and New York University Professor of Economics Nouriel Roubini joined AS/COA Online's Carin Zissis for an exclusive interview regarding Latin America's economic outlook. Roubini forecasts and regional growth rate of 3.8 percent for 2010. He also offered his outlook for specific countries, including Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.

AS/COA: In October you upgraded the growth outlook for Latin America for 2010 from 3 percent to 3.3 percent. Tonight you placed it at 3.8 percent.

Roubini: Yes, we’re doing our quarterly update to our global economic outlook and, as of now, we’re going to come out with it in early January, it’s probably going to be 3.8 percent for Latin America next year.

AS/COA: What is behind this increasingly positive outlook for Latin America?

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AS/COA Online - Congress Starts Engine on Immigration Reform

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Even as the U.S. Congress hustles to forge ahead on health care, an Illinois lawmaker introduced an immigration bill on December 15. Over a dozen lawmakers joined Rep. Luis Gutierrez to back submission of the Comprehensive Immigration Reform for America’s Security and Prosperity Act (CIR ASAP). The proposed legislation represents the first immigration bill introduced since 2007 reform attempts fell apart. “We have waited patiently for a workable solution to our immigration crisis to be taken up by this Congress and our president,” said Gutierrez in a press release. “The time for waiting is over.” But, with issues like unemployment and Afghanistan on Washington’s table, the wait could well continue. Meanwhile, Senators Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Lindsay Graham (R-SC) are expected to unveil a bipartisan bill in early 2010.
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AS/COA Online - Venezuela Widens Takeover of Small Banks

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Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez marked the eleventh anniversary of his first electoral victory by announcing the resignation of a close advisor in connection with a corruption scandal. The Venezuelan government took over seven small private banks in recent weeks, setting off financial jitters as observers wondered whether Caracas would nationalize the country’s banking sector. The banks mismanaged public funds, says the government, which issued dozens of warrants for and arrested eight bankers linked to the scandal. Arné Chacón—brother of science and technology minister, Jesse Chacón—was among those arrested, prompting the minister’s resignation.

Chávez revealed the news in episode 345 of his weekly address Alo Presidente. The leader also announced the takeover and reopening of several of the banks through a new state entity called Banco Bicentario. Despite the seizure of multiple institutions, the seven private banks accounted for as little as 8 percent of total deposits in Venezuela. Still, the institutions appear to have had close ties to the Chávez government. The four banks (Banco Provivienda, Banco Canarias, Banco Confederado, and Bolivar Banco) initially seized in November represented a quarter of the government’s funds in the banking system.  Ricardo Fernández Barrueco, among the banks’ directors and those arrested, allegedly made his wealth through projects that supplied food to the government’s subsidized supermarkets.

Last week, Chávez said he had “no problem” nationalizing banks that misappropriated state funds and failed to extend credit to the poor. Days later, the government seized three more banks—Baninvest, Banco Real, and Central Banco. The Venezuelan bolivar, which skidded in the wake of the interventions, recovered Monday as worries eased about short-term nationalization of the banking sector. But The Wall Street Journal reports that Chávez’s anti-corruption drive may win points with the Venezuelan public and distract from woes that range from power outages to a recession. On top of that, a group of Venezuelan college students held a 17-day hunger strike that ended December 8. The protesters sought OAS attention for their complaints of government abuses, including arrests of opposition leaders.

Former Central Bank Governor Domingo Felipe Maza Zavala said in an interview over the weekend that the current banking crisis may not run as deep as did the country’s 1994 economic crisis. Still, he said the takeovers could spell rising inflation, supply shortages, and additional rationing of electricity and water services in the coming year.

AS/COA Online - Evo Wins Bolivian Vote by a Landslide

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Updated December 7 - In the months leading up to Bolivia's December 6 election, polls signaled that President Evo Morales would be a shoo-in for reelection. In the end, he pulled in even more votes than predicted. Initial results showed him winning almost 63 percent of the votes—roughly 35 points ahead of his top rival, former Cochabamba Mayor Manfred Reyes Villa. Moreover, the Movement Toward Socialism party won a majority of seats in the lower house and captured a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate. Moreover, five departments and one province voted for autonomy. 11 municipalities voted for indigenous autonomy, allowing them to make use of traditional indigenous political structures. As a Los Tiempos interactive shows, political divisions remain between the country's east and west, with the former overwhelmingly voting for Morales while Manfred Reyes won three easter departments.
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AS/COA Online - José Mujica Victorious in Uruguay's Runoff Election

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José “Pepe” Mujica of the governing Broad Front (FA) won Sunday’s runoff election against former President Luis Alberto Calle of the National Party. With 97 percent of the votes in, the country’s electoral court showed Mujica pulling in 53 percent against 43 percent for Lacalle. During campaigns, Lacalle suggested Mujica would take Uruguay down a left-leaning road modeled on the path of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. But Mujica has inidcated he will follow in the footsteps of current President Tabaré Vázquez, whose approval rating exceeds 70 percent.
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AS/COA Online - Pepe Lobo Wins Contested Honduran Election

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Co-authored with Mark Osmond. Hondurans turned out to vote Sunday in hotly contested elections, which the National Party's Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo won by a wide margin, according to figures posted by the country's electoral tribunal. Given that he polled ahead of his top opponent, the Liberal Party's Elvin Santos, for weeks before the election, Lobo's victory came as little surprise. What remains less clear is whether a four-month-old political crisis will fade away now that the elections have come and gone. Deposed leader Manuel Zelaya remains holed up in Brazil’s embassy while division runs deep over the election results’ legitimacy.
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AS/COA Online - Lula Raises Middle East Profile

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Co-authored with Michal Toiba. As Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad prepares for his trip to South America next week, concerns grow about Tehran’s influence in the region. Ahmadinejad, who canceled a trip to Latin America back in May, visits Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia next week in efforts to strengthen political and economic relations. With an ally in Venezuela already, Ahmadinejad’s journey offers the chance for Tehran to deepen ties with South American powerhouse Brazil. However, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hosting of Ahmadinejad could lead to blowback if Brazil fails to join other global powers in pressuring Iran to curb its nuclear goals.
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AS/COA Online - Brazil Sets Climate Change Bull's-Eye

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Presidents Sarkozy (L) and Lula agreed on a proposal they dubbed a "climate bible." (Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/PR)

During a trip to France, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva set a standard for next month’s UN climate change conference in Copenhagen. During a press conference with his French counterpart Nikolas Sarkozy, the two leaders agreed on a plan that calls for reducing global carbon emissions to 50 percent of 1990 levels over the course of the next four decades. The proposal also suggests that, by 2050, industrialized nations should decrease emissions to 80 percent of 1990 rates. The presidents labeled the plan a “climate bible” and it came just after Brazil announced a sharp drop in deforestation rates. Still, when the Copenhagen summit rolls around, bold plans could give way to a scaled-back agreement.

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AS/COA Online - Latin America Strikes Trade Deals at APEC Summit

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Co-authored with Michal Toiba. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) celebrates its twentieth birthday this week when its 21 members come together in Singapore. Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panama, who currently have observer status, hope to join the other countries in the Americas—Canada, Chile, Mexico, Peru, and the United States—that currently have APEC membership. On the forum’s sidelines, Latin American countries are scoring bilateral trade deals to boost trans-Pacific ties. “Asia's increasing demand for resources and commodities has natural synergies with Latin America's energy and commodities producers,” said Singapore's senior trade minister S. Iswaran at a finance meeting that was part of the summit.
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