Americas Quarterly | Right-Wing Populism Hasn’t Thrived in Mexico. Why?

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Eduardo Verástegui followed the playbook of right-wing, populist outsiders in his bid for Mexico’s presidency. The 49-year-old former pop singer and telenovela star turned Catholic activist built a social media following for his anti-abortion movement. A Trump ally, he brought a Conservative Political Action Conference event, or CPAC, to Mexico’s capital in 2022.

Verástegui traveled to Madrid to meet and smoke cigars with Vox’s Santiago Abascal, and attended Javier Milei’s inauguration in Argentina. “My fight is for life. My fight is for freedom,” he said, officially announcing his candidacy back in September. “It’s time to kick the same ones as usual out of power.”

But it turned out that he was too much of an outsider. On February 19, the country’s electoral agency, INE, announced an investigation into whether Verástegui illegally financed his campaign using foreign funds received from a Miami-based political consulting firm. He responded that the INE itself is corrupt—but, by January, his long shot independent bid for the presidency had already fizzled; he earned a small fraction of the signatures needed to appear on the June 2 ballot. It came as little surprise, given that Verástegui’s entertainment career, which more recently involved producing the far-right hit film Sound of Freedom, led him to spend years working in the United States and living in Miami—far from Mexico’s election circuit. And his postures, including a social media post in which he wielded a machine gun to threaten climate and LGBTQ+ activists, drew widespread derision and ridicule.

For many, his short-lived run felt like a dodged bullet—but it also raised a question. Why hasn’t a right-wing insurgent like Milei or Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro gained a foothold in Mexico, a country perceived as socially conservative and home to the world’s second-biggest Catholic population?

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Americas Quarterly | Mexico City’s Mayor Race Will Echo Beyond the Capital

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After a contentious selection process, Morena is set to name its candidate for Mexico City mayor on November 10, and the battle between Clara Brugada and Omar García Harfuch could be the first significant test to reveal Claudia Sheinbaum’s influence within the ruling party. Either of the two would be in a strong position to win what is considered both the second-most important elected office in the country and a launching pad to the presidency. That means the candidate announcement will not only shape next year’s presidential election, but national politics for years to come.

The city’s former security chief, García Harfuch, 41, leads polls and is a close ally of former Mayor Sheinbaum, now the presidential frontrunner and candidate for governing party Morena. Together, they slashed the city’s crime rates and became strong allies. But his background as an outsider to Morena’s leftist movement makes it uncertain that he will get the party’s nod, even though he is widely considered Sheinbaum’s preference.

His top rival is Brugada, 60, the former head of Mexico City’s most populated district and a loyal supporter of the movement of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, AMLO. With battle lines drawn, in October, over 800 Mexico City intellectuals signed a letter backing Brugada over García Harfuch. Public surveys put Brugada in second place. But even if García Harfuch does come out in front when Morena announces the results of its own internal polling process on Friday, a gender-parity rule could allow the party to set aside the results and give her the nomination.

The caped crusader

On a recent rainy night in Mexico City, a black-and-yellow Bat-signal lit up the iconic Monumento de la Revolución with a message across its bat wings: #EsHarfuch. García Harfuch’s backers compare him to Batman in part because of events that took place on June 26, 2020. As he traveled along Paseo de la Reforma, the capital’s most famous boulevard, hitmen linked to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel ambushed his vehicle. Two bodyguards and a bystander were killed. Garciá Harfuch took three of the more than 400 shots fired and, for many, became a figure willing to put his life on the line to combat organized crime…

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Americas Quarterly | Can Xóchitl Gálvez Save Mexico’s Opposition?→

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One early morning a month ago, Xóchitl Gálvez knocked on the door of Mexico’s National Palace. After President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, accused her of planning to end popular social programs, the opposition senator decried his comments as false and secured a judge’s order allowing her to respond in person at one of his daily press conferences. When she arrived at the palace, order in hand, the large wooden doors stayed shut.

But AMLO’s decision to deny her entry had unintended consequences: It launched Gálvez’s presidential bid and, with it, what has been nothing short of a nation-wide media frenzy over her potential candidacy. Before that, she hadn’t appeared in polling for the top seat and was instead viewed as a contender to be mayor of Mexico City. Then, on June 27, Gálvez stood across the street from the National Palace where AMLO resides. “While that door was closed, thousands of Mexicans have opened theirs to me,” she said, and announced she would compete to represent the Frente Amplio Por México alliance in next year’s elections. “Suddenly, I think it hit a lot of people: She could be the one,” said political analyst Carlos Bravo Regidor.

Now the big question is whether the opposition finally struck gold or if what’s been termed “Xóchitl-mania” is a flash in the pan. After all, the opposition has struggled in the face of AMLO’s popularity and populist message to come up with names that could be considered competitive against his perceived favorite, former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, or ex-Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The two candidates from AMLO’s governing Morena party have long led polling to replace him when his six-year term ends next year.

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Latin America Advisor | Who Will Mexico's Ruling Party Tap as Its Candidate?

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Q: Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum resigned on June 16 to launch her campaign for Mexico’s presidency. The mayor is a member of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party, which has said it would select its nominee for president by early September. On June 12, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard also resigned to seek the nomination. How is Mexico’s presidential race shaping up, and who has the best chance of becoming Morena’s candidate? Who will represent the opposition, and what issues will drive the election?

A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online: 

López Obrador and his party, Morena, insist there will be no dedazo, a long-held Mexican practice whereby the president picks his successor. Still, Sheinbaum is seen as AMLO’s favorite, and observers use her catchphrase, #EsClaudia (‘It’s Claudia’), like a fait accompli. Then again, Ebrard gained momentum when Morena’s coalition backed his proposal that rivals exit their posts this month to compete for the party’s candidacy. With a five-poll process to pick the candidate and no public debates, Morena hopes to project a unified front, even if rumors of infighting abound and this unprecedented selection process faces tests. And while AMLO, buoyed by popular social programs, continues to command high approval, disapproval runs higher for his government’s handling of top issues such as crime, corruption and the economy. The problem for the opposition is that most voters don’t think it can do any better. Morena has much higher favorable ratings than any of the three parties in the opposition Va Por México alliance, which, beset with its own infighting woes, will announce its selection process by the end of June. Head-to-head polling gives both Sheinbaum and Ebrard double-digit leads over the alliance’s top names. Of course, the election is a year away. Va Por México could get a boost with the backing of Mexico’s third political force, Movimiento Ciudadano (though its party leader compared the alliance to a sinking ship). The opposition could unveil a surprising name. But with AMLO, the Teflon president, at the helm, the Morena candidate announced in September has a strong chance of winning nine months later.

Read the full Q&A.

AS/COA Online | LatAm in Focus: Guatemala's Electoral Crossroads

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When Guatemalans vote for their next president on June 25, they will get the chance to choose from nearly two dozen names. But three notable aspirants won’t be on the ballot: conservative outsider and poll frontrunner Carlos Pineda, indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera, and the fson of a former president Roberto Arzú. With all three eliminated from the competition by the country’s courts, they are urging Guatemalans to void their ballots and calling their disqualifications “electoral fraud.”

“There are three [contenders] that might be very dangerous for those who are governing right now. And these are the three who have been eliminated,” says Juan Luis Font, an award-winning Guatemalan journalist with over three decades experience at outlets such as Canal Antigua, Revista ContraPoder, Emisoras Unidas, and the recently shuttered elPeriódico. Although Font continues to cover his country’s political scene from the United States with ConCriterio, he is among the dozens of Guatemalan journalists, prosecutors, and judges forced into exile in recent years amid a backlash against anti-corruption efforts. 

What Font and others have faced reflects a difficult moment for Guatemalan democracy—that coincides with this round of elections. Voters, who will select a replacement for current President Alejandro Giammattei as well as all 160 legislators, are also largely pessimistic: 83 percent say the country’s general situation has worsened over the past three years, and only 16 percent trust the electoral tribunal. 

Font explains to AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis that this competition is a battle between those with an authoritarian philosophy of governance and those who support democracy and “would like to have a republic back in Guatemala.” He also notes that, with security a top concern and young voters looking for solutions, many are looking to the mano dura tactics being carried out by the government of Nayib Bukele in neighboring El Salvador as a model.

So who are the top candidates? Font shares the background of poll leaders Sandra Torres, a former first lady; Edmond Mulet, ex-head of Congress and UN diplomat, and Zury Ríos, a long-time legislator and daughter of a military dictator. He also explains why the center-right Mulet appears to be the greatest beneficiary from Pineda’s elimination and that the support he gains could propel him into what will be a likely August runoff. “He's a diplomat [who has been] positively viewed by international community,” says Font. “And he seems to be a little bit more in favor of respecting human rights and democratic principles in the country.”

This podcast was produced by Executive Producer Luisa Leme and Associate Producer Jon Orbach. Carin Zissis is the host. 

The music in this episode is "El arpómetro de Carlos," by P. Coulon and H. Martínez, performed by Ángel Tolosa for Americas Society. Learn more about upcoming concerts: musicoftheamericas.org

AS/COA Online | The China-Taiwan Tussle in the Americas

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In March 2023, Honduras picked a side. Its government switched diplomatic recognition of Taiwan to China, leaving Taipei with just 13 diplomatic allies worldwide.

Taiwan has had a separate government since 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party took control in Beijing, even though China considers it a renegade province. Over the course of the past 75 years, and particularly since the UN dropped recognition of Taiwan in 1971, Taipei has seen its list of allies dwindle. More than half of those allies—seven in total—are located half a world away in Latin America and the Caribbean, where the two East Asian countries have engaged in bouts of dollar diplomacy to curry favor.

And increasingly, China’s economic might is winning countries over. “Honduras is a perfect example of how, from a lot of Latin American and Caribbean countries’ perspective, there is no economic security versus national security. From their perspective, economic security is national security,” explains Associate Director of Research at Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute of Public Policy Leland Lazarus.

With Chinese investment in Latin America reaching $130 billion between 2005 and 2020, the country has become South America's top trading partner and 21 Latin American countries have joined Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. This year’s elections in Paraguay and Guatemala, which are the two biggest economies that still support Taiwan, have made East Asian relations an unlikely campaign issue in both countries; the top opposition candidate in Paraguay has said he’d switch sides and in Guatemala, the Taiwanese president visited in April to shore up support.

If those two countries opted for China, Taiwan would be left with just Caribbean allies in the region.

Amid a flood of Chinese investment dollars and the promise of access to its huge market, why do countries stick with Taipei? “Part of it is just the affinity between democracies, but another part of it is that in the Caribbean economies, what Taiwan is able to provide is sufficient for the economic growth and needs of those Caribbean countries,” says Lazarus. “I want to caveat that—for now. It’s sufficient for now.”

One reason for the caveat is that wealthy Chinese individuals have been attaining Caribbean citizenship. “It’s not outside the realm of possibility that within maybe five years, 10 years or so, that those new citizens could exert political or economic pressure to have those countries switch diplomatic recognition,” says Leland, who’s held roles in the U.S. Southern Command and the U.S. foreign service, as well as having been based in Barbados, China, and Panama.

Morever, China has undertaken military actions of Taiwan’s shores, sparking tensions between Beijing and Washington, which supports Taiwan while recognizing China. So what is the U.S. role? “Certainly from Taiwan's perspective, the allies that remain…are still so important in advocating for Taiwan's participation in international organizations,” says Lazarus. But he points out that even countries that have switched ties recognition can continue to have strong economic and cultural ties. “[The United States] should continue to show the power of our example in terms of our ironclad commitment to Taiwan,” says Lazarus, adding that, “More and more countries really recognize that if there is some sort of conflict over the Taiwan Strait, that would be absolutely catastrophic for the global economy.”

Americas Quarterly | Who is the Dark Horse in Mexico’s Presidential Race?

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They have more in common than just a last name. Interior Minister Adán Augusto López Hernández is not related to Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, but both silver-haired politicians hail from the state of Tabasco in Mexico’s southeastern tropical lowlands. Like the president, López Hernández got his start in the PRI before eventually making his way to the party AMLO founded, Morena, in 2015. And just as AMLO rode an electoral tsunami to victory in the 2018 elections, López Hernández beat his closest rival by more than 40 points to become Morena’s first governor of Tabasco—a role he gave up to join the Cabinet.

Now a pre-candidate in the 2024 presidential race, López Hernández’s main strategy is to emphasize his similarities to the president—but will it be enough to convince AMLO’s most loyal supporters? A March 6 El Financiero poll places López Hernández third among the ruling party’s presidential hopefuls with 15% support compared with 28% for Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and 22% for Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. Alejandro Moreno, head of El Financiero’s public opinion polling, told me that López Hernández attracts a more ideologically moderate voter while Sheinbaum or Ebrard appeal more to the party’s leftist base. That might help explain why López Hernández has been adopting the same language used by the president, said Moreno. “He has probably come to understand that he has to seek out the diehard, radical, AMLO voter that favors the other two [pre-candidates].”

AMLO has shared his stage with all three, giving each the spotlight in a test of who could win Morena’s internal poll for the party nomination and the June 2024 election after that. Sheinbaum is viewed as the top choice, while López Hernández stands as the president’s insurance policy should she stumble.

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Americas Quarterly | What a Comedian’s Poll Performance Says About Mexican Politics

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Eugenio Derbez rode to comedic stardom at the helm of a sitcom set in a make-believe city where people don brightly colored plush outfits. Now, scoring 19% in a September poll for Mexico’s 2024 presidential race, he has outperformed all contenders from the country’s traditional opposition parties, the PRI, PAN and PRD—even though he’s not officially a candidate.

Though his appearance in the survey might seem like make-believe, pollsters gave good reason to include the actor, who left the sitcom world behind a decade ago in favor of Hollywood blockbusters like CODA (2021) and The Valet (2022). One is name recognition—but another, as poll organizers from major media outlet Reforma put it is “his participation in topics of public debate.”

Derbez landed at the center of political controversy a few months back as the most well-known celebrity to join a campaign against the Tren Maya, an $8 billion, signature infrastructure project of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government that involves building a train circuit through the jungles and over the underground water cave system of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. The participants in the campaign, dubbed “Sélvame del Tren” (a play on words in Spanish to say “Save me from the train”), sought to stop a portion of the construction known as Section 5, which connects the tourist hotspots of Cancún and Tulum. They argued that, without appropriate studies or consultations with local residents, environmental and archaeological destruction will occur.

López Obrador, or AMLO, responded by calling the celebrities conservatives and fifis (snobs)—two of his preferred labels for his critics. Still, he invited the participants to the National Palace for an April dialogue about Section 5, which has been embroiled in a series of legal battles. The campaigners pressured to hold the meeting at the construction site instead to bring attention to environmental damage, but accepted the invitation in the capital. Then AMLO called off the meeting last minute, saying many of the famosos canceled. But it appears only one did so: Derbez. He released a video in which he was on set, saying that, out of roughly 70 participants, only he could not attend because he was under contract and filming on location.

In other words, he was doing his job—being an entertainer. And yet the actor, who has declared no intention of running for any form of political office and has made it pointedly clear that he is busy with his movie career, featured near the top of a poll to be the country’s next president…

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AS/COA Online | What's at Stake in Mexico's 2022 Gubernatorial Elections?

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AS/COA Online | What's at Stake in Mexico's 2022 Gubernatorial Elections?

Mexico’s upcoming gubernatorial contests may seem like a relatively minor electoral competition, but they set the stage for a bigger prize: bringing Morena, the party of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a few steps closer to hegemonic political control.

A reshaped gubernatorial landscape

On June 5, voters will pick new governors in six of Mexico’s 32 states: Aguascalientes, Durango, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, and Tamaulipas. The races are scattered across the country, from the U.S. border state of Tamaulipas, to Caribbean-facing Quintana Roo that claims the touristy city of Cancún, to Oaxaca in the south, where López Obrador, or AMLO, commands particularly high levels of support.

As varied as they may be, all six states have one thing in common: None is run by a Morena governor. Governors in Mexico can’t seek reelection beyond their one, six-year term. Polling indicates that the ruling party is likely to win at least four of the seats up for grabs. If it does, a party that was officially founded as recently as 2014 will control two-thirds of the governors’ seats in the country.

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World Politics Review | The Real Winner of Mexico's Midterm Elections Wasn't on the Ballot

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Mexico’s June 6 midterm elections were widely framed as a referendum on President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s statist makeover of the country’s institutions. In the hours after polls closed, headlines pointed to a defeat for the president’s party, Morena. But despite its losses in the lower house of Congress, the results had a number of bright spots for Morena and for AMLO, as Lopez Obrador is popularly known.

On the other hand, there was one clear winner that wasn’t even on the ballot: the country’s electoral authority, the Instituto Nacional Electoral, or INE, which overcame significant challenges to successfully oversee the biggest election in the country’s history.

Due to a recent political reform that led to a realignment of electoral calendars, some 20,000 local municipal positions were up for grabs across the country, as well as all 500 seats in the lower house of Congress. Heading into the election, Morena held a slim majority there with 256 seats; with its coalition partners, it had the two-thirds supermajority needed to amend the constitution. The allocation of seats is determined by a combination of direct and proportional representation, and the final make-up of the new Congress won’t be determined until August, but Morena is projected to lose close to 60 seats…

Read the full article.

AS/COA Online | LatAm in Focus: A Pre-Midterm Pulse Check on the Mexican Electorate

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With 21,000 seats up for grabs across all 32 states, Mexico’s June 6 midterms will be of huge importance. Not only will voters select candidates for a record number of posts, but they’ll also get the chance to signal their assessment of the political movement of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador—better known as AMLO—even if he’s not on the ballot. Will his newcomer party, Morena, build on its sweep of the 2018 elections? And what are the chances Morena’s coalition will win a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies, where all 500 seats are up for grabs?

“In every single midterm election since 1997, the governing party has lost support and lost presence in the lower chamber of Congress,” says Dr. Alejandro Moreno, head of public opinion polling at El Financiero. He explains polls indicate Morena is unlikely to buck that trend. Still, he tells AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis that support for AMLO’s party is similar to where it was in the last election, even if there have been shifts in where that support is coming from. “The younger voters, who were the first and most immediate supporters of López Obrador, are the first ones to abandon him,” says Moreno, who adds that a rise in support among older voters is compensating for that loss.

He also says that Morena’s supporters are made up increasingly of rural voters with lower education levels who previously backed the once-mighty Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). “2018 was more like a rare manifestation of the vote rather than a realignment for the future,” notes Moreno, who points out that both rural and urban middle class voters—two groups that in the past diverged—came together for AMLO in that vote. Now he says: “Things seem to be going back to how they were before.”

"Polls offer this opportunity to have an X-ray of the electorate."

But some aspects of this election are new, and one example is the heightened divisions. “We haven't seen this level of political polarization in the country that I can remember [since I started doing] polls in Mexico,” says Moreno, who is also a political scientist at the Mexico Autonomous Institute of Technology, or ITAM. Why? Voters are less attached to major political parties, which is coupled, he says, with “the president following—for good or bad, I'm not going to judge, just to describe—a polarizing strategy.” Meanwhile, parties that in the past were what Moreno describes as “historical adversaries” have formed alliances in this election to take on the governing party. “Now it's everyone against Morena and its allies.”

AS/COA Online | Four Takeaways from AMLO's Victory in Mexico

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In his first speech as president-elect of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador called for reconciliation in the wake of a divisive race and amid discontent over large-scale violence and  corruption that sparked a devastating loss for the sitting government. “I will not fail you,” López Obrador, or AMLO, told supporters in a subsequent victory speech in a packed Zócalo, Mexico City's main plaza. His remarks repeated past pledges to respect the independence of the central bank, review oil contracts, avoid raising taxes or gas prices, and battle corruption.

It remains to be seen how the leftist will solve the grave problems that drove voters to give him what appears to be a landslide win, and final official results could take days. But here are quick takes from the ground on his win in his third go at the presidency.

1. The outcome was smooth and peaceful on the night of July 1.

In the past, fraud allegations marred Mexican elections. Andrés Manuel López Obrador himself challenged the results of the 2006 vote when he narrowly lost to Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN).

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AS/COA Online | LatAm in Focus: Millennials' Big Role in the Mexican Elections

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At 64, Mexican presidential frontrunner Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the oldest candidate on the ballot, but that’s not stopping 51 percent of millennials from backing him. And their support matters, because that age group has the potential to account for nearly half of the electorate on Mexico’s July 1 election day, says Pancho Parra, editor of polls for millennial-focused news site Nación321.

The fact that younger voters back López Obrador, or AMLO, to a greater degree than do other age groups may seem contradictory. Besides the age factor, millennials consider solving crime and violence to be a top issue but disagree with his proposal to give amnesty to criminals.

So why does the largest portion go for AMLO? One reason is rejection of the sitting government. In Nación321’s millennial poll, respondents were asked to qualify current President Enrique Peña Nieto with a happy or angry emoji, and 89 percent went with latter. But Parra tells AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis that AMLO’s “direct and easy” manner of speaking that compares to ex-President of Uruguay José “Pepe” Mujica—famous for his austere way of living—or former U.S. presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders.

On the other hand, Mexican millennials don’t wear their politics on their sleeve. They say they wouldn’t want to post a selfie with a candidate or chat with one of them on WhatsApp. And they don’t see themselves allied with parties: 59 percent don’t identify as belonging to any party.

Parra says that 2018 marks Mexico’s first social media race, and that’s resulted in a race defined by memes and viral humor. But, in covering and polling millennials, he found they are looking toward the future rather than for quick fixes to problems like the economy and better public safety.

So what comes after the July vote? “Everything’s been promised to the young people: That they’re going to have jobs, that they’re going to be better paid,” says Parra. “But if [the next government] doesn’t accomplish those kinds of things, I think there will be a big democracy fail.”

This episode was produced by Luisa Leme.

AS/COA Online | LatAm in Focus: Why Mexico's Election Will Redraw the Country's Political Map

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The closer we get to Mexico’s election, the more Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s poll lead grows. The three-time presidential candidate better known as AMLO gets called everything from a nationalist to a firebrand to a populist. Still, he’s ahead of Ricardo Anaya, his closest challenger, by more than 20 points, per Oraculus’ poll aggregator. Many question the numbers or posit that undecided voters could make the difference on Election Day.

Do they have a point? We’ll have to see on July 1, but Jorge Buendía, director of polling firm Buendía & Laredo and founding partner of Oraculus, thinks not. “The people that are saying ‘Don’t trust the polls’ are the ones who are supporting candidates who are in second or third place,” he told AS/COA Online Editor-in-Chief Carin Zissis in Mexico City.

On top of that, Buendía explains that these elections could well redefine Mexico’s political scenario, upending past alliances and traditional political rivalries in both Mexico’s North and South. Why? Across the country, more than 3,400 seats are up for grabs—about 60 percent more than in the last general elections. And that helps MORENA, the political party that AMLO started since he lost the 2012 election, and which the frontrunner is encouraging voters to select all down their ballots. “MORENA will have a lot of jobs to offer,” says Buendía. “And the question here is, then what are going to be the checks and balances on López Obrador?”

This episode was produced by Luisa Leme. 

AS/COA Online | Mexico's 2018 Election: 5 Things to Know with 1 Month to Go

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As we enter the final month of Mexico’s presidential race, the polls keep repeating the same results: Andrés Manuel López Obrador holds a solid lead. The latest Reforma survey gives the frontrunner, known as AMLO, a 2-to-1 advantage over his next closest rival, Ricardo Anaya, while the governing-party candidate, José Antonio Meade, stays third. So, aside from parsing presidential poll numbers, what are trends to watch with the July 1 vote looming? Writing from Mexico City, AS/COA Online's Carin Zissis takes a look at five election issues.

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AS/COA Online | The Races for Mexico's Powerful Gubernatorial Seats

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Most of Mexico’s electoral fervor is focused on the top seat in the land—the presidency. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other highly coveted posts up for grabs: nearly a third of Mexican states will select new governors to single, six-year terms on July 1. And perhaps no other posts better exemplify voters’ frustration with corruption.

Back when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) ran the country for more than seven decades straight, governors were deferential to the presidency. Since that period ended in 2000, they’ve become increasingly powerful, thanks to near-unfettered access to public funds, which many of them exploit. Across the country—from the border states of Chihuahua and Tamaulipas to the Gulf Coast’s Veracruz to the tourism paradise of Quintana Roo—several governors ransacked state coffers and ran for the hills in recent years. Some 14 current or ex-governors are under investigation.

Although corruption extends beyond any one political party, many of these scandals involve the PRI, meaning they play a factor in the weak approval ratings of President Enrique Peña Nieto and the fact that PRI presidential candidate José Antonio Meade generally polls third. The party already took a hit in 2016 during the last big round of gubernatorial elections, when it lost six of the nine governorships it held.

But while many speculate as to how much more ground the PRI will lose in this gubernatorial round, it’s not the only party that stands to lose. The left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) experienced high-stakes defections when current presidential frontrunner Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, exited the party to start his own, the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). The PRD holds three of the nine seats up for election and could find itself handing over the crown jewel, Mexico City, for the first time in more than 20 years. Overall, MORENA, which holds none of the country’s 32 governorships at the moment, appears well-placed to win at least four this time around.

From family members to a fútbol star, here’s a look at the candidates and competitions to govern eight states (Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Yucatán) and Mexico City.

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AS/COA Online | Viewpoint: Four Takeaways from Mexico's First Presidential Debate

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The anticipation leading up to Mexico’s first presidential debate of 2018 felt akin to waiting for a heavyweight championship fight. Viewers wanted to see if the April 22 five-way faceoff would budge the needle in a race in which Andrés Manuel López Obrador, better known as AMLO, dominates polls. The debate launched a thousand memes, but did it change the course of the competition? In the lead-up to the July 1 election, here’s what was covered and major takeaways from the first of three debates.

1. The debate covered three weighty topics for Mexicans.

The format was broken into three topics: violence and security, corruption, and democracy and vulnerable populations—topics at the forefront of the public’s mind. Violence and corruption have been among top voter concerns. 2017 was Mexico’s most murderous year on record, and the situation isn’t improving in 2018: last month the homicide rate rose 23 percent compared to March 2017. Worn out by one corruption scandal after another, Mexicans see matters getting worse in this area; the country dropped 12 spots in Transparency International’s latest Corruption Perceptions Index to spot 135 out of 180. At the same time, voter discontent runs high, given that 9 in 10 Mexicans say they’re dissatisfied with democracy.

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AS/COA Online | Explainer: Mexico's 2018 Election and Presidential Candidates

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Mexico’s presidential campaigns officially started March 30, but the frontrunner has been competing for the country’s top post for more than 12 years. A large portion of polls give Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, a formidable double-digit lead as candidates hunker down for what’s promising to be a dirty fight to the July 1 finish. Does that kind of poll lead mean we can call it at this point? Not necessarily, as past elections show. Mexico has no runoff and the last two elections were won with less than 40 percent of the vote, so divided electorates and undecideds have a major role to play in this race. Still, widespread discontent among voters is playing in AMLO’s favor: he’s painted himself as an outsider candidate at a point when 4 out of 5 Mexicans feel the country is on the wrong path.

But, given that there are more seats up for grabs in this election than any other in Mexico’s history, what’s at stake goes beyond the presidency. Here’s a look at the election basics, as well as profiles of the presidential candidates and coalitions.

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AS/COA Online | LatAm in Focus: Back to the Future in Chile and El Salvador?

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In Chile, center-right Sebastián Piñera retakes the helm to replace center-left Michelle Bachelet as president on March 11. Meanwhile, El Salvador’s March 4 legislative and municipal elections saw conservatives picking up seats at the governing party’s expense. But, in both cases, to what degree did voters turn right and to what degree did they turn against the party in control?

In this episode of Latin America in Focus, AS/COA Online's Carin Zissis speaks to Héctor Silva Ávalos, founder of Revista Factum, about why El Salvador’s governing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front—the one-time guerilla group best known as the FMLN—lost a key number of legislative seats.

He says voters were disappointed with the FMLN’s handling of everything from violence to corruption to Washington’s cancellation of Temporary Protective Status for Salvadoran migrants. “What happened in general is that the FMLN hardcore voter didn’t go to vote,” says Silva Ávalos, who is also a researcher for American University and InSight Crime. He and Zissis discuss how the election made President Salvador Sánchez Cerén a lame duck and what the FMLN loss of the mayoralty of San Salvador indicates for next year’s presidential race.

As for Chile, Sebastián Piñera’s first 100 days in office will focus on pension, tax, and education reforms, political scientist Patricio Navia tells Elizabeth Gonzalez. But while the center-right leader’s coalition, Let’s Go Chile, gained the most seats in the congress, it fell short of a majority and will have to contend with an emerging leftist Broad Front. As such, Piñera is unlikely to backtrack on some of outgoing President Michelle Bachelet’s social reforms, including abortion and gender identity legislation. Navia, a professor at New York University also commented on Chileans’ consensus on reforming immigration law to better regulate an influx of Haitian migrants, as well as the chances of expanding regional trade ties depending on upcoming elections in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico.

Co-hosted with Elizabeth Gonzalez.

Latin America Advisor | Can Meade Keep Mexico's Presidency in the PRI's Hands?

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Q: Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on Nov. 27 backed his finance secretary, José Antonio Meade, to be the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party’s candidate in the presidential election to be held next July. Why did Peña Nieto choose Meade, and will Meade’s close affiliation with the relatively unpopular lame-duck president hinder his candidacy? Does Meade have the support of the PRI at large? What will it take for Meade, often described as a U.S.-educated technocrat, to garner enough popular support to become Mexico’s next president?

A: Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of AS/COA Online at the Americas Society and Council of the Americas:

“José Antonio Meade, a lesser-known candidate who’s never run for office, is up against leftist former Mexico City Mayor Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a familiar face making his third go at the presidency and who leads polls in part thanks to voter dissatisfaction with the political status quo. So it seems like Meade, who has PhD from Yale and polls well with elites, could struggle to win popular support in time for election day. But it would be a big mistake to count him out. For starters, Meade’s ‘unknown’ status can be overcome, particularly given that political advertising is crucial to media outlets’ bottom lines in Mexico. Since Meade revealed plans to run, he has gotten nonstop coverage, proving the PRI machinery is gearing up for battle. Second, President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration hopes that what makes Meade different will also make him the victor. The PRI is tainted by corruption, but Meade remains untarnished. He’s held top cabinet posts, ranging from foreign relations to finance, under Peña Nieto, but also during the presidency of Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party, meaning he can siphon votes from the conservative PAN. In fact, Meade isn’t a PRI member; the party opened the door to his candidacy in August by changing its rules to allow non-priistas to run. Finally, Mexico has no runoff vote, and there could be more candidates this time around, given the possibility of some high-profile independents. Meade, or whoever wins, might do so with a third of the votes—or less. And the PRI is, at least publicly, projecting unity while other parties fall victim to infighting. There’s a long way to go between now and July 1, and the PRI is a formidable political force in Mexican politics, regardless of Peña Nieto’s approval rating.”

Read the full Q&A here.