Americas Quarterly | Who is the Dark Horse in Mexico’s Presidential Race?
/They have more in common than just a last name. Interior Minister Adán Augusto López Hernández is not related to Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, but both silver-haired politicians hail from the state of Tabasco in Mexico’s southeastern tropical lowlands. Like the president, López Hernández got his start in the PRI before eventually making his way to the party AMLO founded, Morena, in 2015. And just as AMLO rode an electoral tsunami to victory in the 2018 elections, López Hernández beat his closest rival by more than 40 points to become Morena’s first governor of Tabasco—a role he gave up to join the Cabinet.
Now a pre-candidate in the 2024 presidential race, López Hernández’s main strategy is to emphasize his similarities to the president—but will it be enough to convince AMLO’s most loyal supporters? A March 6 El Financiero poll places López Hernández third among the ruling party’s presidential hopefuls with 15% support compared with 28% for Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and 22% for Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard. Alejandro Moreno, head of El Financiero’s public opinion polling, told me that López Hernández attracts a more ideologically moderate voter while Sheinbaum or Ebrard appeal more to the party’s leftist base. That might help explain why López Hernández has been adopting the same language used by the president, said Moreno. “He has probably come to understand that he has to seek out the diehard, radical, AMLO voter that favors the other two [pre-candidates].”
AMLO has shared his stage with all three, giving each the spotlight in a test of who could win Morena’s internal poll for the party nomination and the June 2024 election after that. Sheinbaum is viewed as the top choice, while López Hernández stands as the president’s insurance policy should she stumble.
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